LAUSR

Background Governments and health policymakers are now looking for strategies to lift the COVID-19 lockdown, while reducing risk to the public. Methods We propose the population attributable risk (PAR) as an established epidemiological tool that could support decision-making through quickly estimating the main benefits and costs of various exit strategies. Results We demonstrate the feasibility of use of PAR using pandemic data, that were publicly available in mid-May 2020 from Scotland and the US, to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 hospital admissions which might be avoided, and the proportion of adverse labour market effects – for various scenarios – based on maintaining the lockdown for those of certain ages with and without comorbidities. Conclusion These calculations could be refined and applied in different countries to inform important COVID-19 policy decisions, using routinely collected data.