LAUSR

This paper analyzes the ongoing transition to sustainable energy in Australia, moving from traditional large-scale plants to distributed renewable generation by studying the time series of coal and gas consumption as well as onshore wind and solar. Even though most of energy generation, especially in the form of electricity is currently being generated from coal and gas, a quantitative assessment of their evolution is necessary to understand whether, and to which extent, renewables are competing in the marketplace with conventional production means. A well-accepted innovation diffusion model is used to capture and interpret the underlying dynamics of the competitive transition in generation. The results show that renewables are exerting a competitive pressure on coal and collaborate with gas towards the transition. The view that gas should play a key role in transition is confirmed by our findings, because it is found to have a competitive role towards coal, while aiding the uptake of renewables.