LAUSR

Abstract As the consumption of aluminum products in China continues to increase in recent years, the in-use stock of aluminum products is increasing. With the service life of aluminum products about to run out and the shortage of bauxite resources in China, recycling domestic aluminum scrap to produce secondary aluminum will become an inevitable trend. With reference to the development status of secondary aluminum in developed countries and the scenario we set, the future production and stock ratio of secondary aluminum in China are predicted. According to our selected scenarios, the research results include: (1) China's primary aluminum will reach its peak around 2025, and its production capacity will gradually decrease with the replacement of secondary aluminum in China; (2) With the increasing domestic aluminum stocks, China began to enter the era of scrap aluminum recycling after 2020, and the peak supply of aluminum scrap lagged behind the peak consumption of aluminum for 10–20 years. (3) The in-use stock of aluminum will peak around 2040 and the in-use stock of secondary aluminum will be saturated around 2060. (4) With the recycling of aluminum scrap, secondary aluminum will break through the production level of 10 million tons in 2023. The level of secondary aluminum in China will exceed the production level of primary aluminum for the first time around 2035. After 2050, secondary aluminum production will account for more than 60% of the total output and the secondary aluminum stock ratio (SASR) will account for more than 70%. Thus, there will be a rapid shifting in production capacity from primary to secondary routes. In this case, the relevant policies should pay more attention to the recovery of aluminum scrap and the production of secondary aluminum. As China's aluminum will maintain this strong consumption momentum and the shortage of bauxite in the country, research on China's future secondary aluminum will become increasingly important.