LAUSR

Abstract Since the liberalization of intercity bus services in Germany in 2013 the intercity bus market has seen tremendous growth (and concentration). Herein, we attempt to assess its long-term market potential. However, as the bus market had been completely regulated for decades, only limited data on user behaviour and revealed preferences currently exists. Our paper wants to contribute to closing this research gap. We conducted a representative survey for Germany in spring 2014 to collect data on actual and potential users of intercity bus services. Our paper presents the most relevant results of this survey and investigates the passenger acceptance of long distance bus services by potential and effective users. We want to show how users evaluate bus services in comparison to alternative modes (rail services, aircraft or use of passenger cars). The analysis distinguishes between different travel purposes and distance. In particular, we examine travel purposes (business trips, holiday and leisure trips), distance, and modal characteristics (e.g. price, quality, speed) as key determinants of modal choice to assess the potential for modal shift from rail, plane, and private car towards intercity bus services. In addition, we also consider habituated behaviour as another determinant of modal choice.