LAUSR

Abstract India's vehicle fleet and travel behaviors will have enormous consequences to the world's economy and environment. This study developed a survey for over 1000 residents of India (or Indians) on topics of vehicle ownership and travel behavior in the key cities of Bengaluru (India's “Silicon Valley”), Kolkata (India's third most-populous metro area, formerly known as Calcutta) and Delhi (India's capital city). The data were then used to model vehicle ownership and use decisions, and other trip-making choices in those three regions, versus other parts of India. Covariates of personal income, household size and residence location were all found to be statistically and practically significant 1 in models of vehicle distances traveled. A multinomial logit model was used to predict vehicle types owned (including motorized two-wheel and four-wheel vehicles), and a Poisson model was used for vehicle ownership counts. Income and other household assets were also valuable predictors. An origin model for vehicle manufacture was also calibrated to help deliver future-year projections. The results suggest that the vehicles-per-person statistic will grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.7% over the next 20 years – at least in the regions of sampled data.