LAUSR

Abstract Disturbance and regrowth are vital processes in determining the roles of forest ecosystem in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles. Using time series observations, the vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm was designed to map the location, timing, and spectral magnitudes of forest disturbance events. While these spectral disturbance magnitudes are indicative of physical changes in tree cover or biomass, their quantitative relationships have yet to be established. This study focuses on estimating disturbance intensity as measured by percent basal area removal using spectral indices from the VCT algorithm over North and South Carolina. Repeat measurements on Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) ground plots, which provide changes in basal area between multiple dates at precise locations, are used for training and validation of the model. The overall R2 between predicted disturbance intensity and reference data is 0.66, and cross-validation prediction uncertainty is 14% in North Carolina. Possible causes of this uncertainty could be site heterogeneity and the temporal offset between ground measurements and satellite observations. Results show the area of stand clearing disturbances remains relatively stable around 1143 km2 yr−1 in North and South Carolina throughout the period of observations (1985–2015). The average amount of forest area affected by partial disturbance is much higher at 3287 km2 yr−1. The area of partial disturbances has strong inter-annual variability with a high value of 6000 km2 in 2007 and a low value of 1919 km2 in 2013.