LAUSR

Abstract Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a valued entomopathogenic fungus endemic to the Tibetan Plateau. Large-scale commercial harvesting and collection have decreased the production and distribution of this fungus, especially for high-quality O. sinensis. Using adenosine content as a quality index of O. sinensis, we developed a comprehensive niche modelling approach to predict the spatial pattern of O. sinensis quality. Based on distribution and quality data for O. sinensis from published field work and experimental data, we separately built a comprehensive habitat suitability model to identify suitable habitats and a spatial quality model to map the adenosine content pattern in O. sinensis. The final model result was defined as the product of the results of the two models. Via this modelling process, we analysed the adenosine content in O. sinensis under baseline climates and different scenarios of future climate change. The model results showed that with increasing temperature, the suitable habitat of O. sinensis tended to shift to the high-latitude and high-altitude hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, and moderate climate warming expanded the area of suitable habitat for O. sinensis, as well as the area of habitats with high adenosine contents. This study provides information necessary for the conservation and sustainable utilization of O. sinensis, and a comprehensive niche model approach to simulate the contents of effective components in natural medicinal materials; thus, the results can contribute to our understanding of climate change impacts on medicinal materials.