LAUSR

Abstract This study presents a methodology for the probabilistic analysis of the environmental vibrations induced by high-speed trains considering the uncertainty of soil parameters. A deterministic ground vibration prediction model with high calculation efficiency is developed to evaluate the train-induced ground vibration. Then uncertain soil parameters are treated as random variables based on the field measurement results. With the aid of Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic analysis is performed to find the statistical information of the uncertain environmental vibration level and to estimate its probability of exceeding the allowable vibration limit. It is found that the variability of the train-induced vibration level becomes remarkable as the soil variability and train speed increase. Without considering soil variability, the deterministic analysis would give wrong information for decision makers when evaluating the vibration limit exceedance of train-induced ground vibration.