LAUSR

Abstract This paper introduces a methodology for identifying critical human and organizational factors in the escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) systems of offshore installations in a harsh environment. To elucidate the complex dependence of human and organizational factors on risky incidents, this methodology uses a Bayesian network (BN) and a sensitivity analysis to assess the criticality of these factors. As a case study, the methodology is applied to the activation of an emergency alarm and considers the consequences introduced because of a harsh environment. The results of the case study show that the probability of success for personnel to become aware of an emergency alarm is most likely affected by noise due to strong wind. Using the proposed methodology, the probability calculations include the human and organizational factors that stem from the organizational level and extend to the evacuation procedures, emergency equipment, and personnel to provide a more practical result than the probabilities estimated by expert judgements.