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The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs

Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in… Click to show full abstract

Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in expert judgment and understanding, and can be contrasted with data-driven modeling approaches. Several families of approaches exist to enable expert elicited systems modeling with varying input information requirements and analytical ambitions.

Keywords: probabilistic causal; causal modeling; expert; expert elicited; approach probabilistic; axiom approach

Journal Title: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Year Published: 2019

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