LAUSR

Abstract The increase in extreme weather events associated with global warming has posed a global challenge for infrastructure. However, our current knowledge on the impact of climate change on infrastructure is quite limited. Here, by analyzing the historical rainfall induced disaster data of Chinese railways from 1981 to 2016, we demonstrate that the rainfall-induced disaster risk of railway infrastructure has increased with increasing extreme rainfall days. Following global warming of 1.5 °C/2 °C/3 °C under RCP8.5, the proportion of railway infrastructure under high disaster susceptibility is projected to increase by ~2.8/4.0/6.7-fold compared to that of the baseline period (1981–1998). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would save economic losses by approximately $0.63 and $2.06 billion per year compared to those under warmings of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. This study implies the necessity and benefit of limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C in the context of infrastructure.