LAUSR

Abstract In recent years, cold waves have come over the Northern Hemisphere, and South Korea has been experiencing extreme cold as well. A number of studies present the recent extreme cold over the Northern Hemisphere as being closely related to the loss of Arctic sea ice. If their assumptions are reasonable, and Arctic warming continues, extreme cold may occur more frequently in the near future. Extreme cold heavily influences the energy demand, and its impact is more severe on low-income people. We compare extreme cold trends from 1976 to 2015 in South Korea by investigating the trends in the winter daily minimum temperature. Quantile regression analysis is applied, and the 10th quantile temperature is taken as an extreme cold event. The results show that all 22 stations have increased tendencies of the winter daily minimum temperature being in the lower 10th quantile over the past 40 years. In contrast, 9 out of 22 stations have decreased tendencies over the last 10 years. Such extreme cold events changed energy consumption behavior. From 2009 to 2015, the peak power demand appeared in winter and not summer, and when an abnormal cold occurred in 2010 and 2013, January heating energy consumption was higher than the average (1997–2015). Energy policy-makers need to assume that worsening of extreme cold is possible in the mid-term and set up measures for it, such as emergency fuel cost support for low-income people. Measures should be taken to ensure that peak loads do not sharply rise in winter. There is a need for a policy that supports heating demand to be easily met by heat rather than electricity.