LAUSR

Abstract Background In recent years, the shortage of paediatricians in China has led to delays in paediatric care and temporary shutdowns of paediatric clinics in many regional hospitals. Such phenomena and events have caused widespread anxiety in the public. The aim of this study is to examine the severity of the shortage of paediatricians. The findings may provide new insight for this health-care crisis. Methods The total number of board-certified paediatricians from 2007 to 2016 was analysed using the annual reports from the China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbooks published by the Chinese government. The total number of children was analysed using annual reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. These sources covered 31 provinces (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were not included). Findings From 2007 to 2016, the total number of board-certified paediatricians nationwide continued to grow year on year from 80 671 to 127 640, and the number of board-certified paediatricians per 1000 children increased from 3.14 to 5.55. Of note, this ratio increased even after the two-child policy was implemented in China in early 2016. However, the current number still indicates a projected shortage of at least 72 460 board-certified paediatricians by 2020. Interpretation The finding seems to support a steady 10-year annual rise in both the total number of board-certified paediatricians and the ratio of board-certified paediatricians to children. However, this is still far from meeting needs. Furthermore, in the first white paper of paediatric resources, another government-commissioned nationwide survey showed that among paediatricians who were practicing clinically, 14 310 left their profession between 2011 and 2014. As a result, there is a potential gap between the numbers of board-certified paediatricians and those actually in clinical practice. Systemic factors that may contribute to the quitting and burnout of paediatricians should be addressed directly. Funding This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81173424 ), Ministry of Education of China (grant number 081002609 ), and the Beijing University of Chinese Medicine (grant number 2014-JYBZZ-XS-134 ).