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Can the Patient Influx at Mass Gatherings be Predicted? A First Attempt to Crunch the Numbers

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read and results were compiled and summarized. Results: In a total of 64 included items, 34 were published between 2013-2016. The most studied events were Germany’s Love Parade stampede in… Click to show full abstract

read and results were compiled and summarized. Results: In a total of 64 included items, 34 were published between 2013-2016. The most studied events were Germany’s Love Parade stampede in 2010 (n= 6) and the UK Hillsborough stadium stampede in 1989 (n= 4). The literature retrieved was from a wide range of different disciplines. Conflicting definitions of human stampedes were found. The common belief that they result from an irrational and panicking crowd has progressively been replaced by studies suggesting that successive systemic failures are the main underlying causes. Stampedes are not reported in global disaster databases, making unusual sources like news reports often the only information available. Prevention measures are to date mainly related to crowd management and venue design, but their effectiveness has not been studied. Best practices for preparedness and response are not consensual. Conclusion: Stampedes are a complex phenomenon that remains incompletely understood, hampering formulation of evidence-based strategies for their management. Many of the findings come from high-profile events and are difficult to extrapolate to other settings. More research from different disciplines is warranted to address these gaps in the knowledge in order to prevent and mitigate future events. A start would be to agree on a commonly accepted definition of stampedes.

Keywords: gatherings predicted; influx mass; patient influx; predicted first; mass gatherings; first attempt

Journal Title: Prehospital and Disaster Medicine
Year Published: 2017

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