LAUSR

OBJECTIVE To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of one, three and six months follow-up in children. DESIGN Pooled analysis of 12 prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within one, three and six months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations. SETTING Community-based, prospective studies from 12 countries in Africa and Asia. PARTICIPANTS Children aged 6-59 months living in the study areas. RESULTS For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with one month follow-up compared to six months by 49% (95% CI: 30-69%) for MUAC <115 mm (p<0.001), 48% (95%CI: 9.4-87%) for WHZ <-3 (p<0.01) and 28% (95%CI: 7.6-42%) for WAZ <-3 (p<0.005). This was accompanied by an increase in false-positives of only 3% or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ <-3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ <-3 or by MUAC <115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm but the use of WAZ <-3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16.4% (95%CI: 12.0-20.9%) compared to 3.5% (0.4-6.5%) for MUAC <115 mm alone. CONCLUSIONS Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false-positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false-positives among children meeting case definitions.