LAUSR

Abstract Aims Children's responses to war and displacement are varied; many struggle, while others appear resilient. However, research into these outcomes disproportionately focuses on cross-sectional data in high-income countries. We aimed to (1) investigate change in resilience across two timepoints in a highly vulnerable sample of Syrian refugee children in Lebanon, and (2) explore predictors of their mental health problems across time. Methods In total, 982 Syrian child–caregiver dyads living in refugee settlements in Lebanon completed questionnaires via interview at baseline and follow-up one year later. We categorised children into groups based on their risk for mental health problems across both timepoints (stable high risk/SHR, deteriorating, improving, stable low risk) according to locally validated cut-offs on measures of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and behavioural problems. Analyses of covariance identified how the groups differed on a range of individual and socio-environmental predictors, followed up by cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) to investigate the directionality of the relationships between significantly related predictors and symptoms. Results The sample showed a meaningful amount of change in mental health symptoms from baseline to follow-up. Over half (56.3%) of children met SHR criteria and 10.3% deteriorated over time, but almost one-quarter (24.2%) showed meaningful improvement, and 9.2% were consistently at low risk for mental health problems at both timepoints. Several predictors differentiated the groups, particularly social measures. According to CLPMs, maternal acceptance (β = −0.07) predicted child mental health symptoms over time. Self-esteem (β = −0.08), maternal psychological control (β = 0.10), child maltreatment (β = 0.09) and caregiver depression (β = 0.08) predicted child symptoms and vice versa (βse = −0.11, βb = 0.07, βmpc = 0.08, βcm = 0.1, βcd = 0.11). Finally, child symptoms predicted loneliness (β = 0.12), bullying (β = 0.07), perceived social support (β = −0.12), parent–child conflict (β = 0.13), caregiver PTSD (β = 0.07), caregiver anxiety (β = 0.08) and the perceived refugee environment (β = −0.09). Conclusions Our results show risk and resilience are dynamic, and the family environment plays a key role in children's response to war and displacement. Conversely, children also have a significant impact on the family environment and caregiver's own mental health. Interventions to promote resilience in refugee children should therefore consider family-wide mechanisms.