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A Multivariate AMV Index and Associated Discrepancies Between Observed and CMIP5 Externally Forced AMV

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Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a multivariate phenomenon. Here for the first time we obtain a multivariate AMV index and associated patterns using Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (MEOF) analysis to… Click to show full abstract

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a multivariate phenomenon. Here for the first time we obtain a multivariate AMV index and associated patterns using Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (MEOF) analysis to explore the multivariate nature of AMV. Coherent multidecadal variability that is unique to the Atlantic is found in the observed MEOF‐extracted AMV, various AMV‐related indices, and an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation fingerprint. When the signal associated with global mean sea surface temperature is removed from both observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, the residual CMIP5 forced basin‐wide sea surface temperature‐based AMV index disagrees strongly with the observed residual. Only the observed residual basin‐wide sea surface temperature‐based AMV index retains a strong AMV signal. The MEOF approach still extracts a residual CMIP5 forced AMV signal that is unique to the Atlantic, although very different from observations. Our findings suggest that the observed AMV is not dominated by external forcing.

Keywords: multivariate amv; forced amv; amv index; index associated; cmip5; index

Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Year Published: 2019

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