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Fast‐Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate

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The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global‐mean surface‐air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies.… Click to show full abstract

The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global‐mean surface‐air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies. Its exact value is rarely known because its estimation requires a long integration time of several thousand years. We propose a method to estimate an accurate value of the equilibrium response from fully coupled climate models at a reasonable computational cost. Using this method, our state‐of‐the‐art climate model CNRM‐CM6‐1 reaches a stationary state after only few hundred of years of integration. This “Fast‐Forward” method consists of an optimal two‐step forcing pathway designed using the framework of a two‐layer energy balance model. It can be applied easily to any coupled climate model.

Keywords: perturbed equilibrium; forward perturbed; fast forward; equilibrium climate; climate; equilibrium

Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Year Published: 2019

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