LAUSR

Early prevention of hypertension is important for global cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. This study aims to explore better predictors for hypertension incidence related to baseline level or trajectories of adiposity indices, as well as the gender-specific effect. 6085 subjects from a functional community cohort in urban Beijing participated in our study. Restricted cubic splines were used to estimate nonlinear associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) as continuous variable with risk of hypertension. Stepwise logistic regression model was performed to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of adiposity indices and metabolic status, adjusted for covariates. Nomogram models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive power of BMI trajectory groups and WHtR trajectory groups on hypertension incidence. Further, all analysis were performed by gender. The risk of hypertension incidence was related to BMI trajectory groups (persistent overweight: RR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.48–2.37; persistent obesity: RR = 2.79, 95% CI: 2.18–3.56; persistent the highest: RR = 4.30, 95% CI: 3.20–5.78) and WHtR trajectory groups (persistent medium: RR = 2.69, 95% CI: 2.07–3.50; persistent high: RR = 3.85, 95% CI: 2.92–5.09; increasing to higher: RR = 7.00, 95% CI: 4.96–9.89). In total population, BMI trajectories and WHtR trajectories showed similar ability to predict the risk of hypertension incidence with AUC 0.723 and 0.726, respectively. After stratified by gender, both BMI trajectories and WHtR trajectories showed higher power in female than male (BMI trajectories: 0.762 vs. 0.661; WHtR trajectories: 0.768 vs. 0.661). BMI and WHtR trajectories have higher predictive power for hypertension incidence compared to baseline data. Females are more vulnerable to obesity than males.