LAUSR

In a recently published study and subsequent correspondence Yin et al.1,2 examine the sensitivity of precipitation and streamflow with temperature for the 99th percentile of precipitation and streamflow. The sensitivity of streamflow with temperature is found to be greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation of ~7% °C−1 and greater than the precipitation-temperature sensitivity. As a result, they conclude that storm runoff, in particular flash flooding, may increase (at more than the CC rate) in response to climate change. Although the authors state that similar studies have not been performed, an almost identical global study published over a year ago found largely contradictory results3. The Yin et al1 results oppose the prevailing tide of literature that suggests global streamflow extremes are more likely to be decreasing than increasing with climatic change4,5,6,7. Here we argue that the Yin et al1 results do not support the assertion that flash flooding will increase with climatic change, but rather are more likely to be related to changes in snowmelt processes.