LAUSR

The attribution of anthropogenically forced trends in the climate system requires an understanding of when and how such signals emerge from natural variability. We applied time-of-emergence diagnostics to a large ensemble of an Earth system model, which provides both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We found emergence timescales that ranged from less than a decade to more than a century, a consequence of the time lag between the chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as the impacts of acidification on the calcium carbonate pump (10 years for the globally integrated signal and 9–18 years for regionally integrated signals) and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean (14 years globally and 13–26 years regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean’s physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 years globally and 27–85 years regionally).The components of the ocean carbon cycle will respond differently to climate change, with anthropogenic impacts first seen on processes sensitive to chemical changes—the calcium carbonate pump and oceanic uptake of CO2—with the soft-tissue pump (sensitive to the ocean’s physical state) emerging later.