LAUSR

Tornadoes and hailstorms can be highly destructive. Owing to local topography and meteorology, eastern Colorado, USA, exhibits a local maximum of these events, and parts of this region are experiencing rapid population growth. Understanding the impacts of climate warming and population change on future human exposure to these hazard extremes is important for regional planning and adaptation. Samuel Childs of Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA, and co-authors estimate changes in tornado and hailstorm human exposure in eastern Colorado using simulations of historical and future weather, population change scenarios and statistical models of tornado and hailstorm spatial distributions. By 2100, the average number of days per year with tornadoes and severe hail across eastern Colorado is estimated to increase by one and three, respectively. Exposure could increase as much as 117% for tornadoes and 178% for hailstorms depending on how population growth scenarios overlap spatially with projected hazard frequency. These results highlight the importance of considering both meteorology and population for future human exposure, and this approach can be applied to other regions vulnerable to such events.