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Asymptotic behavior of the forecast-assimilation process with unstable dynamics.

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Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction, and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods… Click to show full abstract

Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction, and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods to show why this is so. Our stabilization results do not assume a full set of observations and we provide examples where it suffices to observe the model's unstable degrees of freedom.

Keywords: behavior forecast; process unstable; unstable dynamics; asymptotic behavior; assimilation process; forecast assimilation

Journal Title: Chaos
Year Published: 2022

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