LAUSR

The distribution and population structure of organisms is governed by a broad suite of biotic and abiotic variables, interacting across multiple scales. Recruitment is a key demographic process critical to the maintenance of successful populations. Isolating and quantifying the multiscale environmental drivers of recruitment is vital for species conservation, especially for those species with traits that increase their susceptibility to local extirpation. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify the relationship between the rate of recruitment in a locally threatened river blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) and environmental predictors across two spatial scales. There was a 0.99 probability that increased broad-scale stream temperature negatively affected juvenile recruitment rate. We also found that there was a 0.97 probability that the fine-scale relationship between recruitment rate and riparian foliage cover was dependent on temperature. This suggests that broad-scale thermal conditions provide the template upon which at least one local environmental variable influences recruitment rate. Understanding drivers influencing key population processes and the spatial scales at which they operate is critical to gaining an insight into likely changes in population persistence for potentially imperilled species, along with the potential future effects of habitat degradation and climate warming on freshwater fishes in general.