LAUSR

Significance The ability to form value estimates is crucial for optimal decision making, especially when not all features of a choice option are known. To date, however, the neural mechanisms for expectation processes under conditions of incomplete information are unknown. Using computational fMRI, we show that ventromedial prefrontal cortex encodes the expected value of a trial. We also observe a distinct network composed of dorsal anterior cingulate, anterior insula, and dorsomedial caudate that encodes an expectation violation or prediction error signal, based on previous trial history. These findings highlight how the brain computes and monitors value-based predictions during effortful goal-directed behavior when choice-relevant information is not fully available. We are presented with choices each day about how to invest our effort to achieve our goals. Critically, these decisions must frequently be made under conditions of incomplete information, where either the effort required or possible reward to be gained is uncertain. Such choices therefore require the development of potential value estimates to guide effortful goal-directed behavior. To date, however, the neural mechanisms for this expectation process are unknown. Here, we used computational fMRI during an effort-based decision-making task where trial-wise information about effort costs and reward magnitudes was presented separately over time, thereby allowing us to model distinct effort/reward computations as choice-relevant information unfolded. We found that ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) encoded expected subjective value. Further, activity in dorsal anterior cingulate (dACC) and anterior insula (aI) reflected both effort discounting as well as a subjective value prediction error signal derived from trial history. While prior studies have identified these regions as being involved in effort-based decision making, these data demonstrate their specific role in the formation and maintenance of subjective value estimates as relevant information becomes available.