LAUSR

Significance Forecasts of global change impacts on biodiversity often assume that the current geographical distributions of species match their ecological niches. Here we examine this assumption using an extensive dataset of large-scale variation in demographic rates that enables us to quantify demography-based ecological niches of 26 plant species. Contrasting these niches with the species’ geographic distributions reveals that niche–distribution mismatches can be large and depend on key life-history traits: poorly dispersed species are absent from suitable sites, and species with high persistence ability are present in sites that are currently unsuitable for them. Such niche–distribution mismatches need to be accounted for to improve forecasts of biodiversity dynamics under environmental change. The ecological niche of a species describes the variation in population growth rates along environmental gradients that drives geographic range dynamics. Niches are thus central for understanding and forecasting species’ geographic distributions. However, theory predicts that migration limitation, source–sink dynamics, and time-lagged local extinction can cause mismatches between niches and geographic distributions. It is still unclear how relevant these niche–distribution mismatches are for biodiversity dynamics and how they depend on species life-history traits. This is mainly due to a lack of the comprehensive, range-wide demographic data needed to directly infer ecological niches for multiple species. Here we quantify niches from extensive demographic measurements along environmental gradients across the geographic ranges of 26 plant species (Proteaceae; South Africa). We then test whether life history explains variation in species’ niches and niche–distribution mismatches. Niches are generally wider for species with high seed dispersal or persistence abilities. Life-history traits also explain the considerable interspecific variation in niche–distribution mismatches: poorer dispersers are absent from larger parts of their potential geographic ranges, whereas species with higher persistence ability more frequently occupy environments outside their ecological niche. Our study thus identifies major demographic and functional determinants of species’ niches and geographic distributions. It highlights that the inference of ecological niches from geographical distributions is most problematic for poorly dispersed and highly persistent species. We conclude that the direct quantification of ecological niches from demographic responses to environmental variation is a crucial step toward a better predictive understanding of biodiversity dynamics under environmental change.