LAUSR

Significance This paper simulates the spread of COVID-19 at universities via airborne transmission in classroom settings. The transmission risk model used for these simulations accounts for student-specific class schedules, classroom sizes and occupancy, and ventilation rates, as well as vaccination rate and efficacy. We show the simulations reproduce trends observed in weekly infection rates at a large US university. We also evaluate the impact of campus operational policies. Model predictions show moving 90% of classes online can reduce new infections by as much as 18×, and universal mask usage can reduce new infections by up to 3.6×. For full-time in-person instruction, high vaccination rates are predicted to curb transmission even for more contagious variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.