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Significance Testing, contact tracing, and isolation programs have successfully mitigated the COVID-19 pandemic in some countries but have largely failed in the United States. We analyzed contact tracing data in… Click to show full abstract
Significance Testing, contact tracing, and isolation programs have successfully mitigated the COVID-19 pandemic in some countries but have largely failed in the United States. We analyzed contact tracing data in a large US metropolitan area and used a stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission to project the epidemiological impacts of testing and tracing. We found that testing followed by case isolation would be expected to significantly reduce transmission but that the addition of contact tracing would have a relatively negligible impact, given the observed pace and success of follow-up with contacts in the community. Contact tracing programs can effectively mitigate local COVID-19 risks if testing and contact follow-up are significantly accelerated.
Journal Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Year Published: 2022
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