LAUSR

Significance The expansion of pest ranges due to climate change will threaten global agriculture. Winter soil temperature is known to limit pest persistence at higher latitudes. However, few studies have connected overwintering success of soil-dwelling insects with long-term population datasets to investigate how climate change may affect pests’ distributions and population dynamics in the future. Here, we present models demonstrating how greater overwintering survival may expand the range of a serious insect pest. We also highlight the need for projected soil temperature data based on climate change scenarios. To ensure sustainable agricultural production, it is imperative that insect pest range shifts are anticipated to develop solutions that mitigate crop loss in expansion areas.