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Significance Accurate forecasts of migration trends are essential for effective migration policies. We develop a method for probabilistic forecasting of international migration flows between pairs of countries. Our model encodes… Click to show full abstract
Significance Accurate forecasts of migration trends are essential for effective migration policies. We develop a method for probabilistic forecasting of international migration flows between pairs of countries. Our model encodes the observation that the spatial distribution patterns of migration are stable over time. This model produces one-period-ahead probabilistic forecasts that are more accurate than a leading alternative and are well calibrated for international bilateral migration flows, as well as country-level migrant inflows, outflows, and net migration flows. The flow forecasts are sex and age specific and properly account for population change not attributable to migration.
Journal Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Year Published: 2022
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