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Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications

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Significance Group gathering in enclosed spaces (e.g., classrooms, conferences) is an important route for the spread of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Based on the proposed modeling framework, we examine… Click to show full abstract

Significance Group gathering in enclosed spaces (e.g., classrooms, conferences) is an important route for the spread of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Based on the proposed modeling framework, we examine airborne disease transmission among a group of people, under scenarios of indoor meetings involving multiple time scales. Our framework captures the feedback loop between infected individuals’ viral shedding, the venue’s viral dynamics, and the group composition and behavioral characteristics. We study the epidemiological trade-offs emerging by implementing control measures aimed at controlling the viral load. Numerical analysis suggests that ventilation and break times are critical in preventing high viral load levels. Moreover, we found that their impact would equal or exceed that of masking and moderate isolation of infected individuals.

Keywords: disease transmission; airborne disease; modeling framework; time scales; multiple time

Journal Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Year Published: 2023

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