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Significance We contribute a proof-of-concept model to inform decision-making on how to avoid a local epidemic developing into a global pandemic by reducing international air travel worldwide, coupled with a… Click to show full abstract
Significance We contribute a proof-of-concept model to inform decision-making on how to avoid a local epidemic developing into a global pandemic by reducing international air travel worldwide, coupled with a compulsory immigration quarantine when traveling between countries. The work highlights a major innovation: replacing the historical air travel data and fixed parameter values of our case study with a digital-twin model that continuously incorporates a live feed of air travel data and improved model parameter estimates for any novel infection. This may facilitate the rapid analysis of effects of intervention measures as a local epidemic may escalate into a global pandemic, and thus slow or even stop the spread.
Journal Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Year Published: 2023
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