LAUSR

ABSTRACT Few studies have considered potential climate change impacts on forest operations. A review of the literature found that predicted changes to Australian forest growth and mortality varied between regions depending on the models and assumptions used. Impacts of climate change on forest operations will depend on the magnitude and speed of the climate changes and the management decisions used to adapt to these changes. If forest growth declines and management changes are not able to maintain current mean tree sizes at final harvest, costs and productivity of forest harvest and haulage operations at an individual harvest unit level will be affected. Slower forest growth would also mean that less harvest and haulage capacity would be required, unless additional forest planting occurs. The literature review identified the potential for substantial areas of the Australian Eucalyptus globulus plantation estate to be less productive in the second rotation due to the impacts of climate change on growth and the management decision to regenerate many areas using coppice. A higher risk of fire due to the effects of climate change was also identified as likely to reduce the number of days that forest harvesting operations can be conducted in many parts of Australia. The results of modelling based on these potential climate change impacts suggested that supply chain costs might increase by up to 10.9% in comparison to the base case scenario, with the major differences being explained by harvesting and transportation operations. In Australia, the effect of climate change on the economics of harvesting and transport operations might be mitigated by the introduction and implementation of new technology, optimised transport systems and log drying in the forest.