LAUSR

ABSTRACT Accurate thermochemical mechanisms that can predict the formation of nitrogen oxides (NO ) are important design tools for low-emissions engines. The lack of accurate direct measurements of reaction rates and the associated measurement scatter have resulted in recommended rate parameters for individual chemical reactions that have large uncertainty intervals. In an effort to quantify the impact of these parametric uncertainties on emissions predictions, forward uncertainty propagation is performed with five spectral methods. Sparse grids are identified as the optimal technique to rapidly construct accurate surrogate models. Subsequent polynomial expansions with sparse grids, performed in one-dimensional atmospheric laminar flames for only the 30 uncertain reactions that greatly affect NO formation, produce uncertainty intervals two orders of magnitude larger than nominal predictions. Primary uncertainty sources were identified with reaction pathway analyses to evaluate the contribution of individual formation routes and the uncertainties in prompt NO were found to propagate mostly from the CH chemistry. These results highlight the necessity of a comprehensive approach, using experimental measurements with uncertainty quantification and inference techniques, to reduce uncertainty and develop predictive NO models.