LAUSR

ABSTRACT Extreme weather events are becoming more severe and frequent worldwide. This study employs the Mann–Kendall test and Thein-Sen estimator for analysing the mean temperature trend in India’s four densely populated metropolitan cities of New Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, and Chennai under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The trend reveals rising temperatures across four Indian regions with the change being more dominant under RCP 8.5 scenario. By the end of the twenty-first century, RCP 4.5 and 8.5 anticipate a significant rise in mean temperature of 6.0°C and 9.0°C in the Western Himalayas, 5.0°C and 7.5°C in East India and 4.0°C and 7.0°C in the Thar Desert’s south-eastern region. Spatio-temporal variation also indicated the influence of heat waves across different regions of India in the late twenty-first century. There should be relevant long-term and short-term policies to mitigate the effect of climate change and optimise the mortality rate caused by heat stress.