LAUSR

Abstract There has been a steady rise in the disease burden of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) in the sub-Saharan African region over time. Diagnostic testing for GDM is currently recommended at 24 − 28 weeks of gestation, leaving a narrow window for intervention before delivery. Hence the need for early prediction and preventive intervention. The performance of first trimester serum sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) assay as a predictor of GDM was determined by binary logistic regression. Women with GDM (n = 49) had a significantly lower mean first trimester SHBG level (104.7 ± 61.6 nmol/L) than did those without GDM (n = 180; 265.2 ± 141.5 nmol/L; p < .001). First trimester SHBG was significantly negatively correlated (r pb = −0.460, p value = <.001) with subsequent development of GDM and an area under receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.874 (p < .001). A cut-off value of 158.0 nmol/L predictive of GDM had a diagnostic sensitivity of 81.5%, a specificity of 80.1%, and an overall diagnostic efficiency of 80.3%. IMPACT STATEMENT What is already known on this subject? GDM is associated with high risk of various complications and is commonly diagnosed at 24–28 weeks of gestation, leaving a narrow window for intervention. The performance of current maternal clinical and demographic risk factor-based prediction approaches is unreliable. Thus, more favourable prediction approaches need to be developed. Previous studies have suggested that SHBG, a readily assessable marker, has potential to predict GDM; however, these studies have mostly involved Caucasian and other non-African populations. What the results of this study add? SHBG may serve as a reliable first trimester screening tool for GDM development in Nigerian women with singleton pregnancies. This study demonstrates that first trimester SHBG can predict GDM development in sub-Saharan African women despite racial, ethnic and geographical differences. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Effective first trimester prediction of GDM using SHBG may enable preventive interventions, thereby mitigating the high burden of the disease in the sub-Saharan African region. It may also provide relevant information that may guide adaptation of current management guidelines to ensure effective management of GDM in the region.