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Inference for the tail index of a GARCH(1,1) model and an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors

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ABSTRACT For a GARCH(1,1) sequence or an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors, one can estimate the tail index by solving an estimating equation with unknown parameters replaced by the quasi… Click to show full abstract

ABSTRACT For a GARCH(1,1) sequence or an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors, one can estimate the tail index by solving an estimating equation with unknown parameters replaced by the quasi maximum likelihood estimation, and a profile empirical likelihood method can be employed to effectively construct a confidence interval for the tail index. However, this requires that the errors of such a model have at least a finite fourth moment. In this article, we show that the finite fourth moment can be relaxed by employing a least absolute deviations estimate for the unknown parameters by noting that the estimating equation for determining the tail index is invariant to a scale transformation of the underlying model.

Keywords: arch errors; tail index; model arch; model; garch

Journal Title: Econometric Reviews
Year Published: 2019

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