LAUSR

BACKGROUND Although exercise is the mainstay of treatment for neck pain (NP), uncertainty remains over optimal decision-making concerning who may benefit most from such, particularly in the long term. OBJECTIVE To identify the subgroup of patients with nonspecific NP most likely to benefit from stretching and muscle-performance exercises. METHODS This was a secondary analysis of treatment outcomes of 70 patients (10 of whom dropped out) with a primary complaint of nonspecific NP in one treatment arm of a prospective, randomized, controlled trial. All patients performed the exercises, twice weekly for 6 weeks, and a home exercise program. Blinded outcome measurements were collected at baseline, after the 6-week program, and at a 6-month follow-up. Patients rated their perceived recovery on a 15-point global rating of change scale; a rating of "quite a bit better" (+5) or higher was defined as a successful outcome. Clinical predictor variables were developed via logistic regression analysis to classify patients with NP that may benefit from exercise-based treatment. RESULTS NP duration since onset≤6 months, no cervicogenic headache, and shoulder protraction were independent predictor variables. The pretest probability of success was 47% after the 6-week intervention and 40% at the 6-month follow-up. The corresponding posttest probabilities of success for participants with all three variables were 86% and 71%, respectively; such participants were likely to recover. CONCLUSION The clinical predictor variables developed in this study may identify patients with nonspecific NP likely to benefit most from stretching and muscle-performance exercises in the short and long terms.