LAUSR

ABSTRACT Carbon-based payments for ecosystem services solely consider afforestation and reforestation to assess sequestration. However, political ecology researchers demonstrate that tropical forests are complex socioecological systems where humans and institutions play an integral role in shaping landscapes. The current framing overlooks the net effect of traditional subsistence agriculturalists leaving behind low emission lifestyles, despite the likelihood of a significant increase in per capita emissions over time. In this case study, we use the history of forest use in the Pueblos Mancomunados—a commonwealth of indigenous communities in Oaxaca, Mexico—to explore sequestration through a socioecological systems lens. As negative emissions programs consider afforestation, we triangulated semistructured interviews, an unsupervised GIS classification of land cover, and a review of carbon dioxide emissions to consider out-migration, abandonment, and lifestyle change. We find that communities are struggling to maintain livelihoods as migration to urban centers and the United States continues. Meanwhile, spatial analysis revealed 800 ha of afforestation. Our analysis of out-migration scenarios and per capita emissions changes identified a tipping point in which no net-sequestration would occur from afforestation due to the changing lifestyles of the migrants and recommend improved local development to avoid this form of “leakage” when assessing global carbon stocks.