LAUSR

International attention is appropriately focused on a special report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October, identifying impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 C (IPCC 2018). Reaction to this report should be considered in the context that the IPCC is a highly authoritative source. It was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, impacts and options for adaption and mitigation. It is an inter-governmental body in which 195 member countries collectively set the work program, and accept and adopt the reports. (It assesses rather than conducts scientific research directly). Thousands of scientists from throughout the world contribute to its review processes. Its assessments are thus highly deserving of government and public attention, and action. The new report estimates, with high confidence, that global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2050 (a mere 12 to 32 years) if it continues to increase at the current rate. Global mean temperature is already 1C above the 1850-1900 (pre-industrial) baseline. Many land and sea ecosystems and associated services have already changed due to global warming. Stabilising the climate at around 1.5C, the target preferred in Paris at COP21 in 2015, will depend on the intensity, promptness and effectiveness of interventions. The IPCC argues that to restrict warming to 1.5C, carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced to almost zero by 2050. Pathways modelled to achieve this show coal use for electricity needs to phase right out, and renewables would need to supply 70 to 85 per cent of electricity. For Australia, an immediate challenge is how to deal with its most significant emitter and shut down up to 12 coal-fired power stations by 2030 (i.e. in 12 years) (Slezak 2018). Some of these are already programmed for closure and others would be within five years of life span in any event (Slezak 2018). This requires progress in technology and affordability for storage of renewably-produced power (Hundloe and Hartzer 2018), an economic opportunity for Australia given the extent of lithium produced in Western Australia (IPCC 2018, chapter 4). While a transition away from coal has opportunities for alternative power sources, it also has implications for job losses in the energy and mining sectors with major impacts on our regional communities. It will require an orderly timetable and thoughtfully considered investment in transitions. The Report is a dire warning that if the world does not decrease carbon emissions seriously and rapidly, we will not be able to avoid the far more serious impacts on the planet’s liveability of a 2C rise in global mean temperature. This must be coupled with increased carbon dioxide removal, through the familiar afforestation and reforestation, soil carbon sequestration, and new technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage. The higher the temperature rise, the greater the repercussions in the form of higher sea level rise, intense storms, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, droughts and ocean acidification, all concerns for Australia, and some for New Zealand. Global impacts include health, food security, water supply, and irreversible impacts on ecosystems. Multiple inter-related climate risks will become more evident as global temperatures rise. For example hotter, drier climates and water stress will increase the level of risk from bushfires, contributing further CO2 2 , and causing loss of vegetation badly needed to sequester carbon (Gibbons 2013). Regrowth will