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Probability weighting and default risk: a possible explanation for distressed stock puzzles

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This paper suggests incorporating investor probability weighting and the default risk of individual firms into a consumption-based asset pricing model. The extended model provides a unified explanation for several anomalous… Click to show full abstract

This paper suggests incorporating investor probability weighting and the default risk of individual firms into a consumption-based asset pricing model. The extended model provides a unified explanation for several anomalous patterns observed in financial markets. The analysis addresses not only widely recognized asset pricing puzzles, such as the equity premium puzzle, but also less-studied anomalies on financially distressed stocks. The simulation, under which the model is calibrated according to U.S. historical data, shows that a combination of mild overweighting of probability on tail events and nonlinearity of equity values caused by default risk has the potential to resolve these patterns.

Keywords: weighting default; default risk; probability; probability weighting

Journal Title: Quantitative Finance
Year Published: 2020

Link to full text (if available)


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