LAUSR

Abstract The paper presents an attempt to develop a probabilistic model for predicting an annual number of storm overflow discharges. Forecasting the occurrence of an overflow discharge event involved the application of the logistic regression, which does not require the development of complex hydrodynamic catchment models. The performed calculations showed that the logistic regression model can be successfully used to evaluate the performance of the emergency overflow weir. The resultant logit model eliminates the necessity to develop hydrodynamic models, to conduct continuous measurements of the flow intensity in the stormwater drainage system and to collect detailed information on the characteristics of the subcatchments within the analyzed catchment. The hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the annual number of discharges. The analysis of the results demonstrated that they are in the range of stochastic values, which indicates an application-related character of the method.