LAUSR

Abstract Reliability-based design allows the decision-maker to select the level of reliability for a specific explosive blast loading scenario. Important to this is an understanding of airblast and resistance uncertainty. Reliability-based load factors are calculated and are dependent on the variability of model error, explosive mass and range. Reliability-based design load factors (RBDFs) are estimated for explosive ordnance, terrorism, weaponeering and other scenarios. The effect of RBDFs on structural reliabilities for reinforced concrete (RC) columns is then calculated where resistance and loading are random variables, and compared to target values. It was found, for realistic combinations of range and explosive mass variabilities, that RC columns designed to existing standards have a significant margin of safety with a probability of failure of 1 × 10−3 to 1 × 10−5. However, if there is large airblast variability, then the application of RBDFs is necessary to ensure that safety levels are acceptable according to international standards.