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Areal interpolation and the UK's referendum on EU membership

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ABSTRACT I show how results from the United Kingdom's referendum on membership of the European Union can be remapped from local authority level to parliamentary constituency level through the use… Click to show full abstract

ABSTRACT I show how results from the United Kingdom's referendum on membership of the European Union can be remapped from local authority level to parliamentary constituency level through the use of a scaled Poisson regression model which incorporates demographic information from lower level geographies. I use these estimates to show how the geographic distribution of signatures to a petition for a second referendum was strongly associated with how constituencies voted in the actual referendum.

Keywords: areal interpolation; level; interpolation referendum; referendum membership; referendum

Journal Title: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Year Published: 2017

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