LAUSR

ABSTRACT There is a theoretical assumption that post-communist cofmanifesuntries would follow the Lipset and Rokkan’s seminal model regarding electoral cleavages and thus class cleavage would become dominant in those countries as in the West. In this respect the post-communist Estonia is considered an interesting case. On the one hand, there are many enabling preconditions which should promote the class cleavage (e.g. the level of socio-economic development, high social inequality). But on the other hand, a large Russian-speaking minority resides in the country. Nevertheless, the article poses a hypothesis that class cleavage has become more pronounced during the recent decade. The current analysis applies quantitative research methodology while using the data from the Estonian National Election Studies. The results of the analysis show that the ethnic cleavage persistently overshadows the class cleavage and the trend has become even more accentuated during the recent decade. The authors briefly consider alternative explanations for the dominance of ethnic cleavage. They claim that Estonia could be regarded as a critical case because if the class cleavage is not about to rise in one of the most advanced democracies in CEE, it allows the raising of broader questions about the future of class politics.