Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5… Click to show full abstract
Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 ◦C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 ◦C instead of 2 ◦C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr−1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 ◦C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr−1).
               
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