LAUSR

Simulating the implications ofBrexit on theUK’s emissions embodied in tradewith amulti-region input– output table exposes the benefits of European integration.Under 2014 trade volumes, technologies and energymixes, a hardBrexit—reverting to a tradepatternbetween theUKand theEUprior to theEuropean InternalMarket (EIM)—would imply a rise of about 0.215Gt ofCO2eq in theUK’s emissions embodied in imports. This is equivalent to a 38%rise inUK’s imported emissions in 2014 and roughly equal to the territorial emissionsof theNetherlands in 2017. Substituting imports from theEUwith those from the Rest of theWorld (RoW), under the same conditions, implies adding 0.35 kgofCO2eq, onaverage, to each dollar of activity imported in theUK.This underlines the emissionbenefits of an integratedEuropean market abiding to commonenvironmental standards andclimate policies. Filling the gap in imports lost from theUK to theEUby steppingupproductionwithin theEIMwould result in an extra 0.012Gtof CO2eq, a rather small increasewhen compared to the additional emissions in theUK’s imports following Brexit. Should theEUreallocate the lost imports from theUK to theRoW, a total of 0.128GtofCO2eq wouldbe added to theEIM imports. This exposes the environmental benefits in termsof emissions in keepingUK trade closely linked to theEUand the important role that SingleMember States canplay indirectly onEU’s import emissions. In termsof emissions embodied in trade, the sumof theEUmarket is, paradoxically and for the better, less than the sumof its individual parts.