LAUSR

Household access to clean energy is a priority for public health and the environment in low- and middle-income countries. However, past illustrative studies have explored benefits of replacing all polluting energy sources, a transition that is only theoretically possible. Factors that limit achievement of the entire theoretical reduction potential should be explored to inform programmatic decision making. We propose a hierarchy of reduction potentials for emissions from household energy, representing different implementation barriers. Following similar work in renewable energy, we propose four categories of reduction potentials beyond the theoretical maximum: distributional, technical, economic, and market. We apply this framework to household energy emissions using a high-resolution spatiotemporal emission inventory of India, a country chosen for its data availability and level of interest in mitigation. We explore distributional potential using distance from urban areas, technical potential by attributing emissions to energy services, and economic potential with a village- level proxy for likelihood of program success. For distributional potential (spatial accessibility), we find that applying reduction programs within 5 km of urban centers would achieve 36%–78% of the theoretical potential across seven regions in India; extension to 10 km yields reductions of 63%–90%. Technical and economic reduction potentials differ most greatly from theoretical potential in regions that contribute the most to national emissions. Even if some of the relationships underlying emission causes are not completely known, reflecting the factors that affect transitions can inform practitioners and programs seeking to scale and deliver clean energy solutions. We assert that including these important influences should be a goal of emission inventory development, beyond the simple quantification of baseline emissions.