LAUSR

Abstract Background The association between fine particular matter (PM2.5) and frailty is less studied, and the national burden of PM2.5-related frailty in China is unknown. Objective To explore the association between PM2.5 exposure and incident frailty in older adults, and estimate the corresponding disease burden. Design Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014. Setting Twenty-three provinces in China. Subjects A total of 25,047 participants aged ≥65-year-old. Methods Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the association between PM2.5 and frailty in older adults. A method adapted from the Global Burden of Disease Study was used to calculate the PM2.5-related frailty disease burden. Results A total of 5,733 incidents of frailty were observed during 107,814.8 person-years follow-up. A 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 was associated with a 5.0% increase in the risk of frailty (Hazard Ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval = [1.03–1.07]). Monotonic, but non-linear exposure-response, relationships of PM2.5 with risk of frailty were observed, and slopes were steeper at concentrations >50 μg/m³. Considering the interaction between population ageing and mitigation of PM2.5, the PM2.5-related frailty cases were almost unchanged in 2010, 2020 and 2030, with estimations of 664,097, 730,858 and 665,169, respectively. Conclusions This nation-wide prospective cohort study showed a positive association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and frailty incidence. The estimated disease burden indicated that implementing clean air actions may prevent frailty and substantially offset the burden of population ageing worldwide.