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A rigorous statistical framework for spatio‐temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long‐term impact on health

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&NA; In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio‐temporal study. The challenges include… Click to show full abstract

&NA; In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio‐temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio‐temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two‐stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio‐temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five‐year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale.

Keywords: disease data; pollution; spatio temporal; health; rigorous statistical; statistical framework

Journal Title: Biostatistics
Year Published: 2017

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